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ROLLOUT: Just make the DMP play?

Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Friday, 16 August 2024, at 8:25 p.m.

In Response To: Just make the DMP play? (Timothy Chow)

And the answer is "Yes, make the DMP play". Surprisingly, leaving two blots is the DMP play, although rolling it out at DMP it takes 5184 trials to get a solid result of 3 millipoints in favor of slotting. (See variant 1). For money play, slotting wins more games as well as more gammons for a net gain of 13 millipoints.

This came up in the facebook group recently. My take was that slotting two gained little, but there was nothing to lose by trying it even thought the other play looked sound. NeilKaz didn't like the awkward distribution after the 10/4 6/4. Just about everybody else went with 10/4 6/4.

Tim opined that having an exposed blot in white's homeboard might change things, and it appeared to me that this would make the decision easy, favoring the double slot. This doesn't appear to be correct. Other factors that might change things would be how far ahead white is in the race and the strength or weakness of her homeboard. I played with a couple of variants and couldn't determine a clear pattern, so I'm somewhat mystified when the double slot would be better than simply making the four. And the equity at stake

I did the variants on my laptop, so that will have to be another post.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 55
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 111
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=----aCCBBBC----------ccec-:2:-1:1:22:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 22

1.Rollout110/4* 5/3eq: +0.858
Player:
Opponent:		91.47% (G:5.74% B:0.14%)
8.53% (G:0.89% B:0.01%)		Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.851...+0.866) - [99.9%]
Duration: 1 minute 15 seconds
2.Rollout110/4* 6/4eq: +0.845 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:		91.44% (G:4.49% B:0.11%)
8.56% (G:0.53% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.841...+0.849) - [0.1%]
Duration: 41.1 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

//***************
// Variant
//***************





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 55
1 point match
pip: 111
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=----aCCBBBC----------ccec-:0:0:1:22:0:0:0:1:10
Blue to play 22

1.Rollout110/4* 5/3eq: +0.834
Player:
Opponent:		91.70% (G:4.83% B:0.11%)
8.30% (G:1.20% B:0.01%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.832...+0.836) - [99.8%]
Duration: 4 minutes 58 seconds
2.Rollout110/4* 6/4eq: +0.831 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:		91.55% (G:3.54% B:0.08%)
8.45% (G:0.70% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.830...+0.832) - [0.2%]
Duration: 2 minutes 31 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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