I played around with giving white a homeboard blot or a weaker/stronger board. I can't say any of this was very illuminating. Seems like having a blot to shoot at or a weaker board would it tip it towards the slotting play, but the rollouts don't seem to confirm this.
Variant 2 - give white a homeboard blot - making the four beats slotting by 20 millipoints:
       
 
         
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 56 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 111
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=----aCCBBBC---------acccc-:2:-1:1:22:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 22 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 10/4* 6/4 | eq: +0.746 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 89.09% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
10.91% (G:0.64% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.742...+0.750) - [100.0%]
Duration: 23.9 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 10/4* 5/3 | eq: +0.726 (-0.020) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 88.44% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
11.56% (G:1.21% B:0.01%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.720...+0.731) - [0.0%]
Duration: 39.9 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Variant 3 - keep the homeboard blot, but start the crunch - not any significant change from the original position:
  
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 57 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 111
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=----aCCBBBC---------acbec-:2:-1:1:22:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 22 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 10/4* 5/3 | eq: +0.864 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 90.81% (G:8.09% B:0.21%)
9.19% (G:1.14% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.859...+0.869) - [100.0%]
Duration: 36.9 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 10/4* 6/4 | eq: +0.853 (-0.012) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 91.43% (G:5.34% B:0.13%)
8.57% (G:0.52% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.849...+0.857) - [0.0%]
Duration: 22.9 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Variant 4 - weaken the board some more, but no blot - again, not significant change
 
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 50 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 111
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=----aCCBBBC-----------eed-:2:-1:1:22:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 22 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 10/4* 5/3 | eq: +0.860 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 92.14% (G:4.48% B:0.09%)
7.86% (G:0.84% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.853...+0.866) - [99.5%]
Duration: 27.0 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 10/4* 6/4 | eq: +0.850 (-0.009) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 91.91% (G:3.84% B:0.06%)
8.09% (G:0.45% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.847...+0.854) - [0.5%]
Duration: 15.8 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Variant 5 - make the board really strong. This reverses the order, with making the four point 13 millipoints better.
 
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 75 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 111
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=----aCCBBBC--------dbbbbb-:2:-1:1:22:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 22 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 10/4* 6/4 | eq: +0.827 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 90.28% (G:5.13% B:0.14%)
9.72% (G:0.78% B:0.01%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.823...+0.832) - [99.9%]
Duration: 35.1 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 10/4* 5/3 | eq: +0.814 (-0.013) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 88.87% (G:7.87% B:0.23%)
11.13% (G:1.55% B:0.01%) | Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.808...+0.821) - [0.1%]
Duration: 52.5 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10