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My best probability puzzle

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Wednesday, 21 August 2024, at 2:19 p.m.

In Response To: My best probability puzzle (Max Stockslager)

Yes, those are good observations.

If we change the scoring system, and award a player an amount of money proportional to how many steps in in advance they found a prize before the opponent did, then in the long run, on average, the game is fair. Roughly speaking, Andrew wins more often, but when he wins, the margin of the win tends to be small, whereas when Barbara wins, she tends to win by a larger margin.

The situation is reminiscent of players of unequal skill playing backgammon. The more skillful player wins more often, and the in those games, the average amount of excess luck enjoyed by the winner tends to be smaller than in the games in which the less skillful player wins.

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