Yes, this is a little surprising! The anti-joker 61 seems to play a large role. But I think that part of the story is also that playing 8/5 7/2 leaves us inflexible, with aces playing poorly for example (assuming White cleans up one or both of her blots next turn).
Here's a variant where White's 61 doesn't play poorly.
| 1. | Rollout1 | 8/5 7/2 | eq: -0.585 |
| Player: Opponent: | 31.13% (G:1.67% B:0.05%) 68.87% (G:0.93% B:0.01%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.594...-0.577) - [77.4%] Duration: 2 minutes 40 seconds |
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| 2. | Rollout1 | 8/3 7/4 | eq: -0.591 (-0.006) |
| Player: Opponent: | 31.03% (G:1.74% B:0.05%) 68.97% (G:1.10% B:0.01%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.599...-0.583) - [14.5%] Duration: 2 minutes 45 seconds |
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| 3. | Rollout1 | 13/10 7/2 | eq: -0.594 (-0.009) |
| Player: Opponent: | 31.12% (G:1.90% B:0.06%) 68.88% (G:1.40% B:0.01%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.602...-0.586) - [4.5%] Duration: 2 minutes 26 seconds |
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| 4. | Rollout1 | 7/2 4/1 | eq: -0.595 (-0.009) |
| Player: Opponent: | 30.98% (G:1.70% B:0.05%) 69.02% (G:1.15% B:0.02%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.603...-0.587) - [3.6%] Duration: 2 minutes 33 seconds |
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| 5. | Rollout1 | 13/10 13/8 | eq: -0.608 (-0.023) |
| Player: Opponent: | 30.75% (G:1.69% B:0.05%) 69.25% (G:0.84% B:0.01%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.617...-0.600) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 minutes 46 seconds |
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| 6. | Rollout1 | 13/5 | eq: -0.610 (-0.025) |
| Player: Opponent: | 30.92% (G:1.69% B:0.05%) 69.08% (G:1.40% B:0.02%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.619...-0.602) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 55 seconds |
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1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 62908879 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
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