Hitting is an obvious candidate. If we don't hit, then 22/16 3/2 is the main alternative. Playing 3/2 might feel uncomfortable because we're killing a checker, but it's overly optimistic to think we can avoid killing it eventually, and making a four-point board is definitely valuable for containment purposes.
XG prefers 22/16 3/2, and it's because the 16pt and the 2pt are both improvements to our position. If we didn't have a good ace to play, then hitting would probably be better (see the variant below).
         
 
         
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 40 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 128
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-BADB----a--B---A---AbBgb-:1:1:1:61:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 61 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 22/16 3/2 | eq: -0.708 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 28.94% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
71.06% (G:41.32% B:0.14%) | Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.715...-0.702) - [100.0%]
Duration: 37.0 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 16/9* | eq: -0.779 (-0.070) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 26.81% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
73.19% (G:43.61% B:0.56%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.787...-0.770) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 04 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 16/10 3/2 | eq: -0.916 (-0.207) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 24.12% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
75.88% (G:50.03% B:0.39%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.921...-0.910) - [0.0%]
Duration: 35.0 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 22/16 20/19 | eq: -0.922 (-0.213) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 22.71% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
77.29% (G:47.84% B:0.16%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.930...-0.913) - [0.0%]
Duration: 46.6 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 62908879
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
Variant:
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 40 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 130
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-BABD----a--B---A---AbBgb-:1:1:1:61:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 61 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 16/9* | eq: -0.768 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 27.48% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
72.52% (G:43.48% B:0.56%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.776...-0.760) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 22 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 22/16 4/3 | eq: -0.841 (-0.073) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 25.50% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
74.50% (G:46.53% B:0.18%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.848...-0.834) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 05 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 62908879
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release