This is another one from the facebook games vs XG. There's not much equity on the line here, but I found this interesting for two reasons:
1) Making the four vs hitting and playing 6/5 wins the same percentage of games; XG gives the edge to the hitting play because it wins twice as many gammons. Of course, winning gammons was not exactly in the forethought of my calculations here.
I agreed with the group decision and hit followed by 6/5 since if we didn't hit XG wouldn't either and we'd be stuck playing a backgame without enough timing. (See the related position below, where blue makes the four and white has the option to hit - if she does, blue's winning chances improve so making the four point might be a good play against a human who is likely to hit.)
2) The other interesting thing is that nobody voted for or mentioned the bot play, which is to hit and slot the deuce. 6/5 looks like the "normal" follow-on to the hit but by slotting the deuce we force our oponent to hit with some rolls giving blue enough timing, and slotting will make a point more readily than building.
           
 
         
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 96 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 154
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=---C-BD-A-a--A--cb-cbBbbB-:1:1:1:11:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 11 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/10* 3/2 | eq: -0.437 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 35.02% (G:4.24% B:0.12%)
64.98% (G:28.86% B:3.78%) | Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.449...-0.426) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 22 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 13/10* 6/5 | eq: -0.462 (-0.024) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 32.17% (G:4.23% B:0.14%)
67.83% (G:25.42% B:2.51%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.471...-0.452) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 53 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 6/4(2) | eq: -0.478 (-0.041) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 32.17% (G:2.43% B:0.09%)
67.83% (G:25.15% B:2.44%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.487...-0.470) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 38 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
"Variant" - If blue makes the four point and white rolls a hitting roll, the bot play is to not hit, but if white hits then blue's GWC increases by a bit which might make making the four a solid play against a human that hits in these positions.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 96 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 150
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=---CBBB-A-a--A--cb-cbBbbB-:1:1:-1:43:0:0:3:0:10 |
| White to play 43 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 15/8 | eq: +0.547 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 72.09% (G:21.56% B:1.57%)
27.91% (G:1.78% B:0.06%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.540...+0.555) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 52 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 15/12* 9/5 | eq: +0.501 (-0.046) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 66.29% (G:30.67% B:3.51%)
33.71% (G:2.02% B:0.07%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.492...+0.510) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 27 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 15/12* 12/8 | eq: +0.475 (-0.072) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 65.89% (G:29.84% B:3.21%)
34.11% (G:2.23% B:0.07%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.466...+0.484) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 27 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10