Blue doesn't really want to get hit here, but the trouble is that almost all of White's entering rolls are good anyway. If Blue slots the 2pt with 3/2, then he gains quite a bit on White's 9 dancing rolls. Furthermore, since White's board is so weak, getting hit isn't the end of the world.
As the variant illustrates, XG thinks the decision whether to slot would be very close if White had a better board.
          
 
       
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 49 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 147
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=aB-DB-------B--A----AbCgb-:1:1:1:51:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 51 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 20/15 3/2 | eq: -0.549 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 36.15% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
63.85% (G:43.24% B:0.40%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.558...-0.540) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 13 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 22/17 3/2 | eq: -0.574 (-0.025) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 35.52% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
64.48% (G:43.81% B:0.73%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.582...-0.565) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 06 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 22/17 20/19 | eq: -0.608 (-0.059) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 32.38% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
67.62% (G:40.05% B:0.33%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.617...-0.599) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 57 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 22/16 | eq: -0.623 (-0.074) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 31.73% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
68.27% (G:39.82% B:0.41%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.631...-0.615) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 47 seconds |
|
| 5. | Rollout1 | 22/17 15/14 | eq: -0.645 (-0.096) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 31.15% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
68.85% (G:40.42% B:0.34%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.653...-0.637) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 51 seconds |
|
| 6. | Rollout1 | 20/14 | eq: -0.672 (-0.123) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 30.42% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
69.58% (G:41.22% B:0.40%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.680...-0.664) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 41 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 62908879
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
Variant:
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 57 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 147
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=aB-DB-------B--A---bAbCeb-:1:1:1:51:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 51 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 20/15 3/2 | eq: -0.626 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 33.90% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
66.10% (G:45.00% B:0.76%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.634...-0.619) - [85.6%]
Duration: 25 minutes 31 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 22/17 15/14 | eq: -0.633 (-0.007) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 30.82% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
69.18% (G:38.19% B:0.56%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.640...-0.626) - [7.4%]
Duration: 24 minutes 31 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 22/16 | eq: -0.633 (-0.007) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 30.69% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
69.31% (G:37.83% B:0.58%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.641...-0.626) - [7.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 05 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 22/17 3/2 | eq: -0.655 (-0.028) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 33.57% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
66.43% (G:45.98% B:1.30%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.661...-0.648) - [0.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 15 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 62908879
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Search interval: Large
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release