My play was 20/11, which follows the precept of racing when ahead in the race, but it leaves a lot of shots. White has a blot in her board, but her hitting numbers are 2 and 6 while her covering numbers are 3 and 5. XG favors a play that looks odd to me: 20/16 8/3. It does have the advantage of making a home-board point, and duplicating White's 3's to hit and cover.
In the variant, I have moved White's home-board blot to her 4pt, and it changes the rollout verdict substantially.
         
 
          
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 153 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 142
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a-A-aDBB---dE---c-eA-a---:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 54 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 20/16 8/3 | eq: +0.359 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 58.73% (G:16.97% B:0.90%)
41.27% (G:10.96% B:0.40%) | Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.346...+0.372) - [100.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 19 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 13/9 8/3 | eq: +0.306 (-0.053) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 57.03% (G:17.68% B:0.90%)
42.97% (G:11.49% B:0.51%) | Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.293...+0.319) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 13 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 20/11 | eq: +0.277 (-0.082) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 57.80% (G:11.20% B:0.48%)
42.20% (G:10.11% B:0.32%) | Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.263...+0.290) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 05 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 20/16 13/8 | eq: +0.247 (-0.112) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 56.85% (G:13.21% B:0.56%)
43.15% (G:11.93% B:0.33%) | Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.234...+0.260) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 34 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 62908879
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
Variant:
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 154 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 142
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a-A-aDBB---dE---c-eAa----:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 54 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 20/11 | eq: +0.312 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 58.45% (G:11.97% B:0.50%)
41.55% (G:10.19% B:0.32%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.303...+0.321) - [46.2%]
Duration: 14 minutes 02 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 20/16 8/3 | eq: +0.312 (0.000) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 57.92% (G:15.08% B:0.73%)
42.08% (G:10.86% B:0.39%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.303...+0.320) - [42.8%]
Duration: 12 minutes 39 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 20/16 13/8 | eq: +0.307 (-0.005) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 58.27% (G:14.31% B:0.70%)
41.73% (G:11.21% B:0.36%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.299...+0.316) - [11.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 08 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 13/9 8/3 | eq: +0.288 (-0.024) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 56.75% (G:17.94% B:0.87%)
43.25% (G:11.27% B:0.57%) | Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.278...+0.297) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 15 seconds |
|
| |
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 62908879
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release