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Rollout for money and gammon save

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Monday, 2 September 2024, at 9:53 p.m.

In Response To: Don't you hate it when you have to leave a blot? (Timothy Chow)

This position is reminiscent of a Bagai position, though I don't think it quite qualifies. In any case, XG hates 6/1* 4/1, preferring instead the hit-and-split play.

But in the gammon save rollout below, the two plays are tied.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 105
Unlimited Game
pip: 97
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aC-CCBaB---b-----Bbabbbb-:1:-1:1:53:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 53

1.Rollout118/13 4/1* eq: +0.089
Player:
Opponent:		56.14% (G:26.68% B:0.60%)
43.86% (G:21.28% B:0.84%)		Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.083...+0.095) - [100.0%]
Duration: 51.6 seconds
2.Rollout16/1* 4/1eq: -0.050 (-0.139)
Player:
Opponent:		52.28% (G:18.60% B:0.23%)
47.72% (G:14.57% B:0.31%)		Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.057...-0.043) - [0.0%]
Duration: 43.0 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 62908879
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

Gammon save:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 105
2 point match
Crawford
pip: 97
score: 1

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aC-CCBaB---b-----Bbabbbb-:0:0:1:53:1:0:1:2:10
Blue to play 53

1.Rollout118/13 4/1* eq: -0.298
Player:
Opponent:		57.52% (G:24.87% B:1.84%)
42.48% (G:22.43% B:1.70%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.301...-0.296) - [70.7%]
Duration: 3 minutes 00 second
2.Rollout16/1* 4/1eq: -0.299 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:		54.40% (G:21.45% B:0.33%)
45.60% (G:19.36% B:0.42%)		Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.302...-0.296) - [29.3%]
Duration: 2 minutes 55 seconds
 
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 62908879
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

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