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Rollout

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Saturday, 7 September 2024, at 2:25 a.m.

In Response To: Ceci n'est pas un backgame (Timothy Chow)

The only play that XG is willing to countenance is 20/16 20/15. I think the main point is to maintain flexibility and connectivity. mickd suggested that duplication of 5's is a factor, although the variant below suggests that duplication of 5's is not so important.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 109
Unlimited Game
pip: 162
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--a-BBB-BAAb---A-bbcBBbab-:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 54

1.Rollout120/16 20/15eq: +0.250
Player:
Opponent:		58.06% (G:14.86% B:0.72%)
41.94% (G:16.66% B:0.32%)		Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.237...+0.263) - [100.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 43 seconds
2.Rollout115/6eq: +0.105 (-0.145)
Player:
Opponent:		53.67% (G:14.33% B:0.58%)
46.33% (G:15.44% B:0.27%)		Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.092...+0.118) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 19 seconds
3.Rollout115/10 9/5eq: +0.071 (-0.179)
Player:
Opponent:		52.22% (G:13.46% B:0.56%)
47.78% (G:14.19% B:0.25%)		Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.056...+0.085) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 07 seconds
4.Rollout110/6 9/4eq: +0.050 (-0.200)
Player:
Opponent:		51.65% (G:14.31% B:0.64%)
48.35% (G:14.99% B:0.24%)		Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.037...+0.064) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 53 seconds
5.Rollout120/15 9/5eq: +0.038 (-0.212)
Player:
Opponent:		52.09% (G:14.77% B:0.70%)
47.91% (G:18.42% B:0.32%)		Conf.: ± 0.015 (+0.023...+0.053) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 02 seconds
6.Rollout110/5 9/5eq: +0.016 (-0.234)
Player:
Opponent:		50.68% (G:13.81% B:0.59%)
49.32% (G:15.41% B:0.26%)		Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.002...+0.030) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 33 seconds
7.Rollout120/15 10/6eq: +0.006 (-0.244)
Player:
Opponent:		51.53% (G:14.65% B:0.73%)
48.47% (G:18.48% B:0.32%)		Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.010...+0.021) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 02 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 62908879
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

Variant:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 110
Unlimited Game
pip: 162
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a--BBB-BAAb---A-bbcBBbab-:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 54

1.XG Roller++20/16 20/15eq: +0.188
Player:
Opponent:		57.42% (G:13.92% B:0.63%)
42.58% (G:16.83% B:0.27%)
2.XG Roller++15/6eq: +0.088 (-0.100)
Player:
Opponent:		53.26% (G:13.00% B:0.49%)
46.74% (G:14.23% B:0.22%)
3.XG Roller++15/10 9/5eq: +0.036 (-0.152)
Player:
Opponent:		51.35% (G:12.40% B:0.45%)
48.65% (G:13.44% B:0.19%)
4.XG Roller++10/6 9/4eq: +0.007 (-0.181)
Player:
Opponent:		50.64% (G:12.84% B:0.46%)
49.36% (G:14.45% B:0.21%)
5.XG Roller++20/15 10/6eq: +0.002 (-0.186)
Player:
Opponent:		51.45% (G:13.87% B:0.65%)
48.55% (G:17.24% B:0.25%)
6.XG Roller++15/10 8/4eq: -0.004 (-0.192)
Player:
Opponent:		50.72% (G:12.63% B:0.45%)
49.28% (G:15.20% B:0.26%)
7.XG Roller++20/15 9/5eq: -0.008 (-0.196)
Player:
Opponent:		51.05% (G:13.68% B:0.61%)
48.95% (G:17.60% B:0.25%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

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