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Rollout + variant

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Friday, 13 September 2024, at 1:33 p.m.

In Response To: Make a genius play? (Timothy Chow)

Congratulations to the geniuses who responded!

The bot play of 13/8 11/10 is logical once you spot it, with the main challenge in practice being that it's easy to go on autopilot and play a pedestrian alternative.

What is perhaps more surprising is that XG favors 13/8 11/10 even when White has a substantially stronger board. See the variant below for example.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 100
Unlimited Game
pip: 134
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=----aBCBB--AbE---a-eaa-bb-:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 51

1.Rollout113/8 11/10eq: -0.132
Player:
Opponent:		42.80% (G:5.23% B:0.20%)
57.20% (G:15.35% B:0.06%)		Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.145...-0.118) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 08 seconds
2.Rollout113/8 6/5eq: -0.286 (-0.154)
Player:
Opponent:		37.52% (G:4.07% B:0.17%)
62.48% (G:9.60% B:0.06%)		Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.300...-0.272) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 00 second
3.Rollout113/7eq: -0.289 (-0.158)
Player:
Opponent:		37.50% (G:3.76% B:0.10%)
62.50% (G:9.12% B:0.04%)		Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.303...-0.275) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 47 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 62908879
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

Variant:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 103
Unlimited Game
pip: 134
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=----aBCBB--AbE---a-e-bbb--:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 51

1.Rollout113/8 11/10eq: -0.406
Player:
Opponent:		39.19% (G:3.79% B:0.13%)
60.81% (G:18.54% B:0.10%)		Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.420...-0.392) - [88.5%]
Duration: 2 minutes 38 seconds
2.Rollout113/7eq: -0.419 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:		35.54% (G:3.18% B:0.10%)
64.46% (G:10.35% B:0.08%)		Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.432...-0.406) - [10.2%]
Duration: 2 minutes 20 seconds
3.Rollout113/8 6/5eq: -0.428 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:		35.42% (G:3.23% B:0.11%)
64.58% (G:10.91% B:0.07%)		Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.442...-0.413) - [1.3%]
Duration: 2 minutes 23 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 62908879
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

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