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Rollout + 2 variants

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Tuesday, 17 September 2024, at 3:20 a.m.

In Response To: Too many 5's to play (Timothy Chow)

I think this one is tough. First of all, 13/3(2) looks awkward. Secondly, I don't quite understand why the swing between 13/3(2) and switching points is so large when we pass to the variants below.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 100
Unlimited Game
pip: 127
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aBBBBB------C-b--bd-bbbB-:0:0:1:55:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 55

1.Rollout113/3(2)eq: -0.411
Player:
Opponent:
36.74% (G:6.25% B:0.18%)
63.26% (G:12.04% B:0.53%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.425...-0.397) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 02 seconds
2.Rollout113/8(2) 13/3eq: -0.504 (-0.093)
Player:
Opponent:
34.48% (G:6.01% B:0.17%)
65.52% (G:11.31% B:0.49%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.518...-0.490) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 01 second
3.Rollout113/8(2) 6/1*(2) eq: -0.511 (-0.100)
Player:
Opponent:
35.52% (G:4.36% B:0.04%)
64.48% (G:11.49% B:0.57%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.523...-0.499) - [0.0%]
Duration: 51.8 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 62908879
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release


Variant 1:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 98
Unlimited Game
pip: 127
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aBBBBB------C--b-bd-bbbB-:0:0:1:55:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 55

1.Rollout113/3(2)eq: -0.490
Player:
Opponent:
35.24% (G:5.32% B:0.12%)
64.76% (G:11.68% B:0.49%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.500...-0.480) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 39 seconds
2.Rollout113/8(2) 6/1*(2) eq: -0.513 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:
35.79% (G:4.09% B:0.04%)
64.21% (G:11.38% B:0.57%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.520...-0.505) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 24 seconds
 
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 62908879
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release


Variant 2:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 96
Unlimited Game
pip: 127
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aBBBBB------C-b---dbbbbB-:0:0:1:55:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 55

1.Rollout113/8(2) 6/1*(2) eq: -0.635
Player:
Opponent:
35.18% (G:2.99% B:0.03%)
64.82% (G:15.29% B:0.94%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.646...-0.624) - [100.0%]
Duration: 33.7 seconds
2.Rollout113/3(2)eq: -0.722 (-0.087)
Player:
Opponent:
32.99% (G:4.01% B:0.11%)
67.01% (G:16.77% B:0.87%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.735...-0.709) - [0.0%]
Duration: 40.1 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 62908879
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

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