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PotD 9/17/24 - Should I stay or should I go now? - Rollout
Posted By: Stick
Date: Thursday, 19 September 2024, at 9:56 p.m.
In Response To: PotD 9/17/24 - Should I stay or should I go now? (Stick)
So we got everyone but Johnny O' who slyly made the best play of making the ace point. As he pointed out, if we leave now it's 11 PoH numbers and let's not forget the slew of pick and pass numbers. Even the opp's bad numbers sometimes hit loose and force us to roll something good immediately or get buried. You can see in the variant below that if we had a bigger racing lead combined with the opponent having a spare to play next turn it's right to run.
         
 
        
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 90 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 95
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--BCCBC------b-b---cdBb-b-:1:1:1:54:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 54 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 6/1 5/1 | eq: -0.256 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 32.89% (G:1.75% B:0.03%)
67.11% (G:3.60% B:0.08%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.259...-0.253) - [100.0%]
Duration: 12.0 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 21/12 | eq: -0.291 (-0.036) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 30.69% (G:4.50% B:0.09%)
69.31% (G:2.18% B:0.03%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.295...-0.288) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13.2 seconds |
|
| |
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
Variant
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 95 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 95
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--BCCBC------b-c---ccBb-b-:1:1:1:54:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 54 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 21/12 | eq: -0.222 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 33.43% (G:5.20% B:0.07%)
66.57% (G:2.20% B:0.02%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.227...-0.217) - [99.9%]
Duration: 7.5 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 6/1 5/1 | eq: -0.232 (-0.011) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 33.96% (G:2.19% B:0.03%)
66.04% (G:4.10% B:0.11%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.237...-0.228) - [0.1%]
Duration: 6.4 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
Messages In This Thread
- PotD 9/17/24 - Should I stay or should I go now?
Stick -- Tuesday, 17 September 2024, at 3:37 p.m.
- PotD 9/17/24 - Should I stay or should I go now?
John O'Hagan -- Tuesday, 17 September 2024, at 6:36 p.m.
- PotD 9/17/24 - Should I stay or should I go now?
ah_clem -- Wednesday, 18 September 2024, at 2:33 a.m.
- PotD 9/17/24 - Should I stay or should I go now?
Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 18 September 2024, at 11:58 a.m.
- PotD 9/17/24 - Should I stay or should I go now?
Wolfgang -- Wednesday, 18 September 2024, at 7:47 p.m.
- PotD 9/17/24 - Should I stay or should I go now?
Bob Koca -- Thursday, 19 September 2024, at 6:05 a.m.
- PotD 9/17/24 - Should I stay or should I go now? - Rollout
Stick -- Thursday, 19 September 2024, at 9:56 p.m.
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