First there's the standard 3 ply/XGR rollout which was pretty firm in its opinion of whether or not to hit. Still, big bad backgame so I figured why not toss on a ++/++ (huge) rollout and see if it changed anything. In short, for our purposes, it did not seem to. While I stopped it at only 216 trials its' opinion was more or less aligning with the regular rollout.
If we don't hit now we really have to wait quite a while generally to have the opportunity to hit again. When you're playing a SBG it's hard for your forward position to be much more ready to hit than we are now because you have so many checkers back, at least 6, it's hard for the offense to be in place. If it was in place completely then your timing would be about shot which is not what we aim for either.
I hit Otb and it seemed clear to me but it's hard to ever really know when it's such an unusual position. I believe the bot may have yelled at me on some ply so here we are.
            
 
        
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 91 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 201
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-----BC-B-A--Aa---fdBbbBB-:1:1:1:61:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 61 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 20/14* 14/13 | eq: -0.060 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 48.50% (G:6.20% B:0.23%)
51.50% (G:26.84% B:4.64%) | Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.074...-0.045) - [81.0%]
Duration: 58.7 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 20/14* 10/9 | eq: -0.069 (-0.009) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 48.48% (G:6.09% B:0.26%)
51.52% (G:27.21% B:5.38%) | Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.084...-0.054) - [19.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 00 second |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 13/7 8/7 | eq: -0.138 (-0.078) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 45.82% (G:4.02% B:0.16%)
54.18% (G:25.80% B:4.41%) | Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.152...-0.124) - [0.0%]
Duration: 37.0 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 10/4 8/7 | eq: -0.140 (-0.080) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 45.67% (G:4.00% B:0.17%)
54.33% (G:25.73% B:4.37%) | Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.155...-0.124) - [0.0%]
Duration: 34.7 seconds |
|
| 5. | Rollout1 | 13/7 10/9 | eq: -0.146 (-0.086) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 45.75% (G:4.02% B:0.16%)
54.25% (G:26.00% B:4.40%) | Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.159...-0.132) - [0.0%]
Duration: 34.7 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 91 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 201
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-----BC-B-A--Aa---fdBbbBB-:1:1:1:61:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 61 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 20/14* 14/13 | eq: -0.014 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 49.89% (G:6.30% B:0.26%)
50.11% (G:26.85% B:4.66%) | Conf.: ± 0.030 (-0.044...+0.016) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 34 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout2 | 13/7 8/7 | eq: -0.119 (-0.105) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 46.70% (G:3.72% B:0.15%)
53.30% (G:25.53% B:4.30%) | Conf.: ± 0.024 (-0.143...-0.095) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 04 minutes |
|
| |
1 216 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: XG Roller++, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Search interval: Huge
2 216 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: XG Roller++, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Search interval: Huge
|