As Bob and Stick correctly point out, I missed a cube here. That's not what makes this position interesting - I miss a lot of cubes and if I posted every time I did everyone would be sick of me by now.
What makes this interesting is that it seems to be a "sandbag" play, where the correct play is not to make the strongest move but to make a weaker play to obtain better overall equity from the cube. Or at least that's what I think is going on. How else to explain why a move that wins 84.6% of games and 13% gammons gives less equity than one with 81.3 GWC and 12.3 gammons.
I can't say I really understand this, and was hoping someone would shed some light on it. Do you hang back so as to have a cash next roll? Opponent shook a 62 and I was TG (and cashed like a donkey, btw)
         
 
         
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 119 | | 7 point match | pip: 120
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=----aBEABB---C--bebc-b----:0:0:1:22:0:0:0:7:10 |
| Blue to play 22 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/11 7/5 6/4*(2) | eq: +1.012 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 81.30% (G:12.33% B:0.11%)
18.70% (G:1.40% B:0.04%) | Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.010...+1.014) - [100.0%]
Duration: 40.1 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 7/5 6/4*(3) | eq: +1.006 (-0.006) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 79.28% (G:11.79% B:0.11%)
20.72% (G:1.74% B:0.04%) | Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.005...+1.008) - [0.0%]
Duration: 36.7 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 9/7(2) 6/4*(2) | eq: +0.997 (-0.016) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 82.36% (G:12.92% B:0.12%)
17.64% (G:1.34% B:0.04%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.993...+1.001) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 33 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 13/11 9/7 6/4*(2) | eq: +0.958 (-0.055) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 84.62% (G:13.02% B:0.14%)
15.38% (G:1.45% B:0.04%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.954...+0.961) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 41 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2