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PotD 9/21/24 - You should know from RefPos - ++/++ Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Wednesday, 25 September 2024, at 9:31 p.m.

In Response To: PotD 9/21/24 - You should know from RefPos (Stick)

I wasn't 100% sure whether to take or pass OtB but in getting to this position XG had quite the miracle sequence so I took out of spite (of course). I ended up winning on an 8 cube. One game rollouts don't lie.

I usually at least take a quick look at ++/++ rollouts for near end game positions because why not. Rollouts are quick enough to see if there's any difference from regular settings. I posted the regular settings rollout below too.





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 83
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 85
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-aBCCCC----a-------bcbbbbA:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 76.89% (G:1.98% B:0.03%) 77.00% (G:1.91% B:0.03%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 23.11% (G:1.24% B:0.03%) 23.00% (G:1.23% B:0.03%)
Cubeless Equities +0.545 +1.093
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.715 (-0.253)±0.009 (+0.707..+0.724)
Redouble/Take:+0.968±0.011 (+0.957..+0.979)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.032)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
324 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: XG Roller++
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 6 minutes 33 seconds
White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 83
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 85
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-aBCCCC----a-------bcbbbbA:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 76.55% (G:2.19% B:0.02%) 76.98% (G:1.94% B:0.03%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 23.45% (G:1.26% B:0.03%) 23.02% (G:1.26% B:0.03%)
Cubeless Equities +0.540 +1.093
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.708 (-0.258)±0.003 (+0.706..+0.711)
Redouble/Take:+0.967±0.003 (+0.964..+0.970)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.033)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 23.8 seconds

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