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BGonline.org Forums
PotD 9/23/24
Posted By: Bob Koca In Response To: PotD 9/23/24 (Stick)
Date: Thursday, 26 September 2024, at 7:48 p.m.
18/13 is out since it is clearly worse than 18/14, 6/5.
18/13 gives 1 fewer shot but it turns white's worst racing rolls into great hitting rolls and does not force any direct shots like 61, 51, 41 do after 18/14 6/5 nor any race wastage plays like 31, 21 (not even sure they wouldn't just give up the shot) do after 18/14 6/5.
18/17 8/4 looks better than an 18/14 play. It gives 3 more shots but the benefits are:
i) Instead of forcing 6 blotting numbers and 4 race wasting numbers it forces a blot on 12 numbers 61, 62, 63, 64, 43, 42 and race wastage on 31 and 21.
ii) When a shot is obtained it will be more hitting numbers on average than just the 11, or maybe 12 which occur after 18/14.
iii) If hit you are better by 3 pips for the longshot race win.
The big question to me is if just leaving it on 18 is best and playing 8/4 6/5.
It gives up two more shots but they both give opponent 16 bad rolls (either a shot or race wasting, which I think is almost as bad). Leaving it on 18 means you get significantly more shots on average. They would all be 17 hitting numbers aiming for a blot 6 away or after the double blotting 41 it gives 23 hitting numbers. After 18/17 the blotting numbers aim for a checker from 1 to 4 pips away. A small edge for staying back is that if hit are 1 pip better in the longshot race.
Two immediate hits though is a lot to overcome. My play is 18/17 8/4.
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