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PotD 9/26/24 - Backgame Cube - Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Tuesday, 1 October 2024, at 7:36 a.m.

In Response To: PotD 9/26/24 - Backgame Cube (Stick)

I thought with two more off and keeping the evenness on both points would be enough to be able to cube. Apparently still not good enough. (but does everyone take that cube?!) See variant below.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 160
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 55
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--bbaEE----------a-cbbaa--:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 49.77% (G:32.01% B:7.52%) 50.00% (G:31.87% B:7.62%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 50.23% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 50.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.391 +0.790
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.535±0.021 (+0.514..+0.555)
Redouble/Take:+0.330 (-0.204)±0.029 (+0.301..+0.359)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.465)
 
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 23.4%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 48.2 seconds

Variant
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 160
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 44
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--bbaDD----------a-cbbaa--:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 54.19% (G:34.73% B:12.94%) 53.74% (G:34.00% B:12.97%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 45.81% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 46.26% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.561 +1.089
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.722±0.022 (+0.700..+0.745)
Redouble/Take:+0.652 (-0.071)±0.034 (+0.618..+0.686)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.278)
 
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 16.9%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 47.3 seconds

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