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PotD 9/27/24 - Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Wednesday, 2 October 2024, at 8:03 a.m.

In Response To: PotD 9/27/24 (Stick)

So the posted position was actually a variant of what came up OtB. I thought I was sure to catch at least a couple people and thought the comparison between the original and variant make for a good point. See the original below where the outfield checker is moved one pip forward to allow it to communicate with our slotted bar point.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 74
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 107
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aBBBBCA------AA---c-dccaA:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 63.16% (G:13.62% B:0.42%) 63.75% (G:13.55% B:0.43%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 36.84% (G:17.96% B:0.48%) 36.25% (G:18.65% B:0.50%)
Cubeless Equities +0.219 +0.446
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.401±0.006 (+0.395..+0.408)
Redouble/Take:+0.301 (-0.101)±0.022 (+0.279..+0.322)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.599)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 12.6%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 17.6 seconds

Original
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 74
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 106
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aBBBBCA-----A-A---c-dccaA:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 66.12% (G:14.08% B:0.41%) 66.91% (G:13.35% B:0.39%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.88% (G:18.01% B:0.60%) 33.09% (G:18.02% B:0.61%)
Cubeless Equities +0.281 +0.579
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.448 (-0.003)±0.005 (+0.443..+0.453)
Redouble/Take:+0.451±0.019 (+0.432..+0.470)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.549)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:61.3%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 22.5 seconds

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