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PotD 10/1/24 - Rollout Surprise

Posted By: colin owen
Date: Tuesday, 8 October 2024, at 1:13 p.m.

In Response To: PotD 10/1/24 - Rollout Surprise (Stick)

This longer rollout confirms the roughly 0.01 difference in the two slotting plays. What is interesting here is how - and after a 5k rollout - 13/7 is virtually tied with 13/8 6/5, despite losing the second direct covering number, and the additional 2 shots. The bar point seems to be a more important point to have here, as it's better for getting the other chequers safely around, and the 5 point is much less valuable when the opponent has the 4 anchor.

FWIW QF seduced me into 18/13 3/2, but I may have played it OTB as risking the big racing lead seemed folly to me.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 165 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 147 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=---Bb-D-C-a-dC---dCd------:0:0:1:51:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 51

1.	Rollout1	18/13 8/7	eq: +0.2583
	Player: Opponent: 56.62% (G:11.43% B:0.40%) 43.38% (G:7.78% B:0.30%) Conf.: ±0.0032 (+0.2550...+0.2615) - [100.0%] Duration: 55 minutes 36 seconds
2.	Rollout1	18/13 6/5	eq: +0.2499 (-0.0084)
	Player: Opponent: 56.70% (G:10.38% B:0.37%) 43.30% (G:7.62% B:0.28%) Conf.: ±0.0031 (+0.2467...+0.2530) - [0.0%] Duration: 55 minutes 19 seconds
3.	Rollout2	13/8 6/5	eq: +0.2212 (-0.0371)
	Player: Opponent: 55.78% (G:10.73% B:0.37%) 44.22% (G:8.01% B:0.30%) Conf.: ±0.0066 (+0.2146...+0.2277) - [0.0%] Duration: 13 minutes 11 seconds
4.	Rollout2	13/7	eq: +0.2199 (-0.0384)
	Player: Opponent: 55.62% (G:11.71% B:0.40%) 44.38% (G:8.12% B:0.31%) Conf.: ±0.0068 (+0.2131...+0.2267) - [0.0%] Duration: 13 minutes 13 seconds
5.	Rollout3	18/13 3/2	eq: +0.2020 (-0.0563)
	Player: Opponent: 55.71% (G:9.00% B:0.28%) 44.29% (G:8.88% B:0.32%) Conf.: ±0.0094 (+0.1926...+0.2114) - [0.0%] Duration: 5 minutes 27 seconds
6.	Rollout4	8/2	eq: +0.1589 (-0.0993)
	Player: Opponent: 54.47% (G:10.17% B:0.32%) 45.53% (G:9.46% B:0.32%) Conf.: ±0.0126 (+0.1464...+0.1715) - [0.0%] Duration: 3 minutes 54 seconds
7.	Rollout4	13/8 3/2	eq: +0.1522 (-0.1060)
	Player: Opponent: 54.33% (G:9.18% B:0.27%) 45.67% (G:9.64% B:0.37%) Conf.: ±0.0121 (+0.1402...+0.1643) - [0.0%] Duration: 3 minutes 49 seconds
1 23328 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 11809629 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 11809629 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 3 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 11809629 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 4 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 11809629 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Messages In This Thread

• PotD 10/1/24
  Stick -- Thursday, 3 October 2024, at 7:38 a.m.
  • PotD 10/1/24
    John O'Hagan -- Thursday, 3 October 2024, at 11:08 a.m.
  • PotD 10/1/24
    ah_clem -- Thursday, 3 October 2024, at 2:31 p.m.
  • PotD 10/1/24 - Rollout Surprise
    Stick -- Monday, 7 October 2024, at 9:43 p.m.
    • PotD 10/1/24 - Rollout Surprise
      colin owen -- Tuesday, 8 October 2024, at 1:13 p.m.
    • PotD 10/1/24 - Rollout Surprise
      Sam Pottle -- Friday, 11 October 2024, at 5:26 a.m.
      • PotD 10/1/24 - Rollout Surprise
        mickd -- Tuesday, 15 October 2024, at 4:51 a.m.