Another one from the facebook humans vs XG page. We overwhelmingly agreed with Mary and Sam and made the classic play of fighting for the five point. As Sam points out, the advanced anchor and the extra spare on the eight make for a good argument for hitting.
There's also a good argument to be made for running to the 18. As John points out, white's outfield points are stripped so even though it volunteers a triple direct shot, the hits are not as costly.
But the bot prefers minimizing shots with 6/3 - it unstacks a bloated point as well as minimizing shots. All three plays have about the same GWC, it's the gammon losses that tilt the verdict to the quiet 6/3.
        
 
         
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 144 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 161
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--a--aF-D---bBab-b-bbBb--A:0:0:1:43:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 43 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | Bar/21 6/3 | eq: -0.712 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 31.16% (G:5.85% B:0.18%)
68.84% (G:14.31% B:0.56%) | Conf.: ± 0.017 (-0.729...-0.695) - [100.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 57 seconds |
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| 2. | Rollout1 | Bar/21 8/5* | eq: -0.772 (-0.060) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 30.70% (G:6.75% B:0.28%)
69.30% (G:18.11% B:0.74%) | Conf.: ± 0.021 (-0.793...-0.751) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 24 seconds |
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| 3. | Rollout1 | Bar/18 | eq: -0.780 (-0.068) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 30.35% (G:5.96% B:0.25%)
69.65% (G:15.35% B:0.58%) | Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.794...-0.766) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 13 seconds |
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| 4. | Rollout1 | Bar/21 13/10 | eq: -1.000 (-0.288) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 24.49% (G:3.63% B:0.16%)
75.51% (G:19.35% B:0.70%) | Conf.: ± 0.000 (-1.000...-1.000) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 53 seconds |
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| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
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eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10