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PotD 10/3/24 - So, this is normal... - Rollout FWIW

Posted By: Stick
Date: Wednesday, 9 October 2024, at 11:09 p.m.

In Response To: PotD 10/3/24 - So, this is normal... (Stick)

I may come back to this later today performing a rollout with higher settings to see if that changes the answer any. (and would extend this rollout to kill the variance if it did) I'm taking this all day long for money. It feels like the person being doubled has a much easier time playing his numbers than the person doubling.





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 182
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 125
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=--BB--D-----ca--bbbdBBCa--:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 70.43% (G:26.51% B:0.64%) 70.46% (G:26.75% B:0.64%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 29.57% (G:5.30% B:0.19%) 29.54% (G:5.27% B:0.18%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.625 +1.257
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.890 (-0.110)±0.008 (+0.882..+0.897)
Double/Take:+1.032 (+0.032)±0.012 (+1.020..+1.043)
Double/Pass:+1.000
 
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 3 minutes 48 seconds

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