BGonline.org Forums

PotD 10/8/24 - Run D.M.C. - Rollout, tricky, tricky, tricky!

Posted By: Stick
Date: Wednesday, 16 October 2024, at 8:41 a.m.

In Response To: PotD 10/8/24 - Run D.M.C. (Stick)

Making the 9pt here is what I'd call a natural human play I couldn't blame anyone for making. It turns out only to be a small error of course but the reasoning is still intriguing regardless.

Normally the 9pt would have a lot more play against the opp's back checkers but since the opponent is already anchored out, it's much less effective. What we need to be focusing on instead apparently is building our board quickly so that when/if we get a shot from the opponent trying to extricate his back checkers we'll have the board to contain him. We make the 9pt what does it do really? Blocks [22] and makes [52] worse for the opponent. It also makes our sixes play like trash for the most part.

Now the tricky, tricky, tricky part is we actually have a pass in the original problem after any of the plays. I've included a rollout after 9(2) below a rollout of the plays with the cube already turned.

Things is, we still have to make the 'best' play in case our opponent doesn't double. I think that if there's a chance the opponent won't double it is best to make the 9pt. It leaves a position that to a human appears less vulnerable and the opponent may sleep through the cube. Either of the other plays, while technically better, may nudge your opponent to notice those blots and all the immediate freedom he has and cube. Try to get a free roll out of it and play 9(2).

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 139 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 151 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=---B--DbC-A-cC---bbdb---B-:1:1:1:41:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 41

1.	Rollout1	8/4 6/5	eq: -0.510
	Player: Opponent: 27.54% (G:6.76% B:0.26%) 72.46% (G:21.00% B:1.49%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.514...-0.505) - [99.9%] Duration: 2 minutes 34 seconds
2.	Rollout1	10/5	eq: -0.520 (-0.010)
	Player: Opponent: 26.91% (G:6.32% B:0.23%) 73.09% (G:20.71% B:0.98%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.523...-0.516) - [0.1%] Duration: 2 minutes 21 seconds
3.	Rollout2	13/9 10/9	eq: -0.529 (-0.019)
	Player: Opponent: 26.86% (G:6.01% B:0.26%) 73.14% (G:21.26% B:1.01%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.535...-0.523) - [0.0%] Duration: 59.2 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

---

Original position after 9(2) cube

		White is Player 1 score: 0 pip: 146 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 139 score: 0 Blue is Player 2
XGID=---B--DbCB--cB---bbdb---B-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	73.45% (G:19.41% B:0.85%)	73.51% (G:20.89% B:0.95%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	26.55% (G:5.71% B:0.21%)	26.49% (G:6.01% B:0.22%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.612	+1.252
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.922 (-0.078)	±0.010 (+0.912..+0.932)
Double/Take:	+1.067 (+0.067)	±0.015 (+1.052..+1.082)
Double/Pass:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 47.4 seconds

Messages In This Thread

• PotD 10/8/24 - Run D.M.C.
  Stick -- Monday, 14 October 2024, at 8:53 a.m.
  • PotD 10/8/24 - Run D.M.C.
    ah_clem -- Monday, 14 October 2024, at 2:32 p.m.
    • PotD 10/8/24 - Run D.M.C.
      John O'Hagan -- Tuesday, 15 October 2024, at 12:54 p.m.
  • PotD 10/8/24 - Run D.M.C.
    mickd -- Monday, 14 October 2024, at 9:59 p.m.
  • PotD 10/8/24 - Run D.M.C. - Rollout, tricky, tricky, tricky!
    Stick -- Wednesday, 16 October 2024, at 8:41 a.m.