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PotD 10/10/24 - Volatile Enough?

Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Wednesday, 16 October 2024, at 2:25 p.m.

In Response To: PotD 10/10/24 - Volatile Enough? (Stick)

Fifteen ways to shake a five, all of which appear to be market losers. (ok, maybe not if she shakes a 61 from the bar). The version of O'Hagan's law that I have (correct me if this is wrong) is

"Double if you have at least 9 market losers out of 36 while doing fine on the remaining rolls"

I can't say that blue is always "doing fine" on all the remaining 21 rolls, but any roll that totals 7 or above allows us to run to safety while almost evening the race. Small numbers look bad, but white still needs to hit.

The take looks clear since the 21 non hitting rolls leave white with a nice race lead most of the time.

The only obstacle to cubing seems to be the probability of having to eat a four cube which seems to happen if blue rolls small, but I think I will risk that. D/T.

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