Hit or anchor...

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Hit or anchor...

Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Thursday, 24 October 2024, at 12:24 a.m.

In Response To: Hit or anchor... (ah_clem)

I didn't get any nibbles on these two positions, both of which came from the facebook humans vs XG, and both of which saw a split vote.
Here, I favored the anchor since I wanted to keep the midpoint. There's not enough timing for a backgame and white has serious liabilities with the deep homeboard point and the straggler still to spring, so hitting is the bot move. Not a lot of equity on the line though.
There was some discussion of whether to slot the three after anchoring, but that doesn't matter if you hit here.

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 140

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 169
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=-a---BD-Ca--cB---ccbAABb--:0:0:1:31:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 31

1. Rollout¹ 13/9* eq: -0.095
Player:
Opponent: 48.69% (G:14.49% B:0.60%)
51.31% (G:18.04% B:0.97%) Conf.: ą 0.016 (-0.111...-0.079) - [96.4%]
Duration: 7 minutes 59 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 21/20 8/5 eq: -0.116 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent: 46.68% (G:13.41% B:0.42%)
53.32% (G:12.27% B:0.43%) Conf.: ą 0.014 (-0.129...-0.102) - [2.9%]
Duration: 7 minutes 46 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 21/20 6/3 eq: -0.122 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent: 47.41% (G:12.39% B:0.45%)
52.59% (G:14.18% B:0.48%) Conf.: ą 0.015 (-0.138...-0.107) - [0.7%]
Duration: 8 minutes 35 seconds

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10