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PotD 10/10/24 - Volatile Enough? - Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Thursday, 24 October 2024, at 9:30 p.m.

In Response To: PotD 10/10/24 - Volatile Enough? (Stick)

Below is a variant where we've brought our opp's spare back to its normal place on the 6pt taking it from a borderline decision on the cube to a beaver.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 85
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 99
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--CBBBB----AcB-a---bAcbbb-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 55.98% (G:10.37% B:0.13%) 56.35% (G:10.69% B:0.09%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 44.02% (G:3.20% B:0.03%) 43.65% (G:3.11% B:0.02%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.192 +0.407
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.095±0.002 (+0.093..+0.097)
Double/Take:+0.094 (-0.001)±0.005 (+0.089..+0.098)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.905)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 0.1%
Rollout details
10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
 
Double Decision confidence:69.2%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 minute 57 seconds

Variant
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 87
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 99
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--CBBBB----AcB-a---cAbbbb-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 55.24% (G:9.30% B:0.11%) 55.69% (G:9.77% B:0.08%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 44.76% (G:3.39% B:0.03%) 44.31% (G:3.31% B:0.05%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.165 +0.357
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.056±0.007 (+0.049..+0.062)
Double/Beaver:-0.047 (-0.103)±0.028 (-0.075..-0.020)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.944)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Beaver
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 8.9%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Beaver Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 16.4 seconds

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