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PotD 10/14/24 - Is it good enough? - Rollout = MLS

Posted By: Stick
Date: Tuesday, 29 October 2024, at 4:53 a.m.

In Response To: PotD 10/14/24 - Is it good enough? (Stick)

As for market losing sequences it's fairly easy to estimate as [44] and [55] always lose your market, [66] and [22] will lose it 5/6ths of the time. (and the remaining 1/6th are still very efficient cubes fwiw) The rest of the lot, [33 11 64 54 43 42 41 31] will lose the market just under half the time on average. There are no market crashers. Technically this comes in as a cube but feel like it's a tough one for a human to find OtB.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 121
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 127
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--BaBBBB----bC--cc-bB-bb--:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 60.78% (G:20.26% B:0.25%) 61.33% (G:20.94% B:0.33%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 39.22% (G:5.02% B:0.18%) 38.67% (G:5.28% B:0.20%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.369 +0.769
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.447 (-0.008)±0.005 (+0.442..+0.452)
Double/Take:+0.456±0.008 (+0.448..+0.463)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.544)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
 
Double Decision confidence:96.5%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 3 minutes 37 seconds

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