[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

PotD 10/18/24 - Prime Time Cube? - Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Sunday, 3 November 2024, at 12:32 a.m.

In Response To: PotD 10/18/24 - Prime Time Cube? (Stick)

While a wise old man once said all normal prime v. prime positions are takes we need to realize this doesn't exactly fall into that category even if the answer is still take. This is a blitz v. prime which can be wildly tricky and often come down to minute details that are sometimes hard to pinpoint. While this position is a borderline cube and even MCG would know to take the cube, take a look at the variant below where the doubler's spares are more neatly arranged.





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 134
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 88
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-a--BBCBC--A-a-----bcccbAA:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 57.75% (G:36.70% B:0.85%) 58.12% (G:36.48% B:0.83%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 42.25% (G:6.38% B:0.26%) 41.88% (G:6.31% B:0.25%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.464 +0.940
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.573 (-0.006)±0.005 (+0.567..+0.578)
Redouble/Take:+0.579±0.008 (+0.571..+0.587)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.421)
 
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
 
Double Decision confidence:89.5%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 minutes 15 seconds

Variant
White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 134
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 91
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-a--BBCBC--A-a-----cccbbAA:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 62.40% (G:41.78% B:1.04%) 62.72% (G:41.40% B:1.00%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 37.60% (G:5.33% B:0.20%) 37.28% (G:5.39% B:0.21%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.621 +1.245
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.803 (-0.130)±0.008 (+0.794..+0.811)
Redouble/Take:+0.932±0.013 (+0.920..+0.945)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.068)
 
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 48.9 seconds

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.