When this came up OtB I was flummoxed. I wrote an article for GammonVillage an eon or so ago where we clearly saw the importance of covering a blot on the ace point once it was there. Sure, this position the blot is on the two point instead of the ace point, but it's very similar in theory. Then we have the issue of the massively stacked 6pt and the still stacked midpoint. Then we have the issue of damn it, even though I'm behind a little in the race I'd sure like to escape my back checker! So what is more important here and most importantly of course, why?
Well, we don't rate to get + hit a shot any time in the immediate future so covering our blot may be a back burner type of thing. While the opponent does have 12 in the zone we're pretty much out of harm's way for now if we stay back on his two point. If we were to move up he'd be a lot more likely to bump us around especially since we have less than no board to speak of. By process of elimination we come to the play that at least unstacks both our heavy points and will allow us a couple turns from now to look like we have a playable game.
           
 
        
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 131 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 142
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
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| XGID=--A---FbB----Eab-c-eb--A--:0:0:1:51:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 51 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/8 6/5 | eq: -0.802 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 32.93% (G:5.83% B:0.26%)
67.07% (G:23.25% B:0.43%) | Conf.: ± 0.017 (-0.819...-0.785) - [100.0%]
Duration: 30.7 seconds |
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| 2. | Rollout1 | 23/22 13/8 | eq: -0.855 (-0.053) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 32.57% (G:6.16% B:0.25%)
67.43% (G:25.73% B:0.47%) | Conf.: ± 0.018 (-0.873...-0.837) - [0.0%]
Duration: 33.1 seconds |
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| 3. | Rollout1 | 6/1 2/1 | eq: -0.870 (-0.068) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 31.80% (G:5.20% B:0.18%)
68.20% (G:23.82% B:0.41%) | Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.886...-0.854) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27.8 seconds |
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| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
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