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PotD 10/20/24 - Rollout Zinger

Posted By: Stick
Date: Sunday, 3 November 2024, at 7:10 a.m.

In Response To: PotD 10/20/24 (Stick)

The original is a clear pass whereas we see in the three variants that if we give the player being doubled 3 more well placed pips we'll have a borderline t/p decision. If, however, those three pips are not well placed it will remain a large pass. Part of it has to be about the pips but part of it also has to be about the immediate preparedness of our forward position.





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 137
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 115
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=----BBD-BA--cB---dbdA-b-A-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 75.10% (G:13.10% B:0.35%) 74.82% (G:15.86% B:0.41%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 24.90% (G:3.20% B:0.09%) 25.18% (G:3.97% B:0.13%)
Cubeless Equities +0.604 +1.236
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.935 (-0.065)±0.008 (+0.927..+0.943)
Double/Take:+1.082 (+0.082)±0.012 (+1.070..+1.094)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 50.1 seconds

Variant #1
White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 134
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 115
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=----BCCB-A--cB---dbdA-b-A-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 73.98% (G:11.69% B:0.25%) 74.14% (G:13.14% B:0.27%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 26.02% (G:3.35% B:0.10%) 25.86% (G:3.63% B:0.11%)
Cubeless Equities +0.565 +1.159
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.890 (-0.110)±0.004 (+0.885..+0.894)
Double/Take:+1.004 (+0.004)±0.006 (+0.998..+1.010)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:89.8%
Duration: 2 minutes 51 seconds

Variant #2
White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 134
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 115
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=---ABBC-BA--cB---dbdA-b-A-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 73.64% (G:12.20% B:0.28%) 73.46% (G:15.71% B:0.51%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 26.36% (G:3.59% B:0.09%) 26.54% (G:4.34% B:0.12%)
Cubeless Equities +0.561 +1.173
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.882 (-0.118)±0.005 (+0.877..+0.887)
Double/Take:+1.008 (+0.008)±0.007 (+1.001..+1.015)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:99.2%
Duration: 3 minutes 13 seconds

Variant #3
White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 134
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 115
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=----BBE-B---cB---dbdA-b-A-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 75.35% (G:11.48% B:0.26%) 75.15% (G:14.16% B:0.38%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 24.65% (G:2.87% B:0.07%) 24.85% (G:3.60% B:0.11%)
Cubeless Equities +0.595 +1.222
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.915 (-0.085)±0.009 (+0.907..+0.924)
Double/Take:+1.064 (+0.064)±0.012 (+1.053..+1.076)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 38.1 seconds

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