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PotD 10/25/24

Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Wednesday, 6 November 2024, at 2:01 p.m.

In Response To: PotD 10/25/24 (Stick)

The 12 hitting rolls seem to be market losers, but the 24 misses leave blue behind in the race.

White is in good shape after the misses and a slight favorite most of the time. Even at 50-50 to win after a miss, that's 12/36 to win which is a comfortable take, and probably more like 40% to win from here.

And misses leave white the favorite, the race is close enough that blue will be eating a four cube a lot of the time. Maybe it's a cube due to the market losers, but the take looks so huge and the cube vig looks strong enough that I'd hold here.

ND/T.

(I don't play enough with beavers to say whether it's a beaver. Might be.)

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