BGonline.org Forums

PotD 10/25/24 - Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Monday, 11 November 2024, at 6:36 p.m.

In Response To: PotD 10/25/24 (Stick)

I feel like all the mentioning of potential beavers is a little ... thoughtful. See variant below for when it is actually a sort of surprising cube.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 66 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 75 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--CCCBB----a-B-a---acbbbc-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	59.56% (G:1.30% B:0.02%)	59.80% (G:1.30% B:0.02%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	40.44% (G:0.05% B:0.00%)	40.20% (G:0.06% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.204	+0.417
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.199	±0.006 (+0.193..+0.205)
Double/Take:	+0.140 (-0.059)	±0.010 (+0.130..+0.150)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.801)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 6.4%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 2.3 seconds

---

Variant

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 71 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 75 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--CCCBB----a-B-a---bcbbbb-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	64.21% (G:1.12% B:0.02%)	64.41% (G:0.97% B:0.01%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	35.79% (G:0.09% B:0.00%)	35.59% (G:0.07% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.295	+0.594
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.355 (-0.015)	±0.003 (+0.352..+0.358)
Double/Take:	+0.369	±0.005 (+0.365..+0.374)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.631)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 7.4 seconds

Messages In This Thread

• PotD 10/25/24
  Stick -- Wednesday, 6 November 2024, at 12:55 p.m.
  • PotD 10/25/24
    ah_clem -- Wednesday, 6 November 2024, at 2:01 p.m.
  • PotD 10/25/24
    Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 6 November 2024, at 5:38 p.m.
  • PotD 10/25/24
    Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 6 November 2024, at 5:43 p.m.
  • PotD 10/25/24 - Rollout
    Stick -- Monday, 11 November 2024, at 6:36 p.m.