| |
BGonline.org Forums
PotD 10/31/24 - Conditions
Posted By: Max Stockslager In Response To: PotD 10/31/24 - Conditions (Stick)
Date: Friday, 15 November 2024, at 4:47 p.m.
Against a stronger opponent I would not be confident deciding between 1/off(4) and 6/5(2) 1/off(2). I assume the first wins a few percent more gammons but a few percent fewer games but don’t have a good rule of thumb for evaluating these. I would go with 1/off(4) since the gammon race is close + gut feeling that our position doesn’t look too ugly afterwards + we still win often after getting hit, but low confidence so interested to hear if there is a better way to evaluate.
To be honest I would not have considered opponent skill level at all making this decision OTB, but I can see an argument that against a weaker opponent we should more clearly take 4 off since we might get a partial equity refund when we get hit, since White will have harder decisions trying to close us out while our checker plays will be easy. (Cube should be pretty easy for both sides, but White might have some difficult containment checker plays or need to decide between bearing off safely vs. aggressively if we get a few more checkers off before getting hit).
If we are the strongest player in the chouette, the same argument as above applies, but on the other hand, if we are the strongest player, we are going to be much more +EV in the box than at the back of the rotation, so winning the game and the box is probably top priority (both because we are playing for more $/game, and because we get to make our own checker plays instead of getting penalized for the captain’s checker play errors).
| |
BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.