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Equity Disparities

Posted By: pierrez
Date: Friday, 22 November 2024, at 9:08 a.m.

In Response To: Equity Disparities (Nack Ballard)

To add a bit of mystery, I ran the first position (after 21$-51S-11) with both XG version 2.10 and XG version 2.19.211 pre-release and same settings although not the Bob's ones.



 





White is Joueur 2

score: 0
pip: 161
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 164
score: 0

Blue is Joueur 1
XGID=-aa--AD-C--AdD---d-e----B-:0:0:1:11:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 11

1.Rollout18/7(3) 6/5eq: +0,2646
Player:
Opponent:		55,93% (G:17,12% B:0,70%)
44,07% (G:11,99% B:0,57%)		Conf.: ±0,0166 (+0,2480...+0,2812) - [90,2%]
Duration: 1 hour 01 minute
2.Rollout124/21 6/5eq: +0,2496 (-0,0150)
Player:
Opponent:		56,16% (G:15,69% B:0,76%)
43,84% (G:11,53% B:0,52%)		Conf.: ±0,0149 (+0,2347...+0,2645) - [9,2%]
Duration: 1 hour 31 minutes
3.Rollout124/22 11/10 6/5eq: +0,2372 (-0,0274)
Player:
Opponent:		56,00% (G:15,98% B:0,75%)
44,00% (G:12,48% B:0,49%)		Conf.: ±0,0154 (+0,2218...+0,2527) - [0,5%]
Duration: 1 hour 15 minutes
4.Rollout124/23 24/22 6/5eq: +0,2273 (-0,0374)
Player:
Opponent:		55,43% (G:15,19% B:0,66%)
44,57% (G:11,88% B:0,49%)		Conf.: ±0,0164 (+0,2109...+0,2437) - [0,0%]
Duration: 1 hour 08 minutes
5.Rollout124/23(2) 11/10 6/5eq: +0,2244 (-0,0402)
Player:
Opponent:		54,97% (G:16,62% B:0,68%)
45,03% (G:11,73% B:0,49%)		Conf.: ±0,0176 (+0,2067...+0,2420) - [0,0%]
Duration: 1 hour 12 minutes
6.Rollout18/5 6/5eq: +0,2228 (-0,0418)
Player:
Opponent:		54,87% (G:17,18% B:0,69%)
45,13% (G:12,41% B:0,67%)		Conf.: ±0,0156 (+0,2072...+0,2384) - [0,0%]
Duration: 1 hour 15 minutes
7.Rollout111/9 6/5(2)eq: +0,2220 (-0,0426)
Player:
Opponent:		55,07% (G:16,89% B:0,79%)
44,93% (G:12,33% B:0,65%)		Conf.: ±0,0141 (+0,2079...+0,2360) - [0,0%]
Duration: 1 hour 15 minutes
8.Rollout111/8 6/5eq: +0,2178 (-0,0468)
Player:
Opponent:		55,03% (G:16,10% B:0,68%)
44,97% (G:11,89% B:0,58%)		Conf.: ±0,0149 (+0,2029...+0,2326) - [0,0%]
Duration: 1 hour 08 minutes
9.Rollout124/22 6/5(2)eq: +0,2115 (-0,0531)
Player:
Opponent:		55,28% (G:15,30% B:0,68%)
44,72% (G:12,50% B:0,55%)		Conf.: ±0,0149 (+0,1966...+0,2264) - [0,0%]
Duration: 1 hour 21 minutes
10.Rollout124/23 11/9 6/5eq: +0,2074 (-0,0573)
Player:
Opponent:		54,99% (G:16,15% B:0,69%)
45,01% (G:12,41% B:0,57%)		Conf.: ±0,0159 (+0,1915...+0,2232) - [0,0%]
Duration: 57 minutes 54 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
White is Joueur 2

score: 0
pip: 161
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 164
score: 0

Blue is Joueur 1
XGID=-aa--AD-C--AdD---d-e----B-:0:0:1:11:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 11

1.Rollout18/7(3) 6/5eq: +0,2661
Player:
Opponent:		55,93% (G:17,12% B:0,70%)
44,07% (G:11,92% B:0,57%)		Conf.: ±0,0163 (+0,2498...+0,2824) - [92,5%]
Duration: 26 minutes 30 seconds
2.Rollout124/21 6/5eq: +0,2496 (-0,0165)
Player:
Opponent:		56,16% (G:15,69% B:0,76%)
43,84% (G:11,53% B:0,52%)		Conf.: ±0,0149 (+0,2347...+0,2645) - [7,1%]
Duration: 28 minutes 23 seconds
3.Rollout124/22 11/10 6/5eq: +0,2372 (-0,0289)
Player:
Opponent:		56,00% (G:15,98% B:0,75%)
44,00% (G:12,48% B:0,49%)		Conf.: ±0,0154 (+0,2218...+0,2527) - [0,4%]
Duration: 27 minutes 59 seconds
4.Rollout124/23 24/22 6/5eq: +0,2273 (-0,0388)
Player:
Opponent:		55,43% (G:15,19% B:0,66%)
44,57% (G:11,88% B:0,49%)		Conf.: ±0,0164 (+0,2109...+0,2437) - [0,0%]
Duration: 40 minutes 56 seconds
5.Rollout124/23(2) 11/10 6/5eq: +0,2244 (-0,0417)
Player:
Opponent:		54,97% (G:16,62% B:0,68%)
45,03% (G:11,73% B:0,49%)		Conf.: ±0,0176 (+0,2067...+0,2420) - [0,0%]
Duration: 38 minutes 28 seconds
6.Rollout18/5 6/5eq: +0,2228 (-0,0433)
Player:
Opponent:		54,87% (G:17,18% B:0,69%)
45,13% (G:12,41% B:0,67%)		Conf.: ±0,0156 (+0,2072...+0,2384) - [0,0%]
Duration: 36 minutes 55 seconds
7.Rollout111/9 6/5(2)eq: +0,2220 (-0,0441)
Player:
Opponent:		55,07% (G:16,89% B:0,79%)
44,93% (G:12,33% B:0,65%)		Conf.: ±0,0141 (+0,2079...+0,2360) - [0,0%]
Duration: 37 minutes 39 seconds
8.Rollout111/8 6/5eq: +0,2178 (-0,0483)
Player:
Opponent:		55,03% (G:16,10% B:0,68%)
44,97% (G:11,89% B:0,58%)		Conf.: ±0,0149 (+0,2030...+0,2327) - [0,0%]
Duration: 35 minutes 35 seconds
9.Rollout124/22 6/5(2)eq: +0,2115 (-0,0546)
Player:
Opponent:		55,28% (G:15,30% B:0,68%)
44,72% (G:12,50% B:0,55%)		Conf.: ±0,0149 (+0,1966...+0,2264) - [0,0%]
Duration: 38 minutes 51 seconds
10.Rollout124/23 11/9 6/5eq: +0,2074 (-0,0587)
Player:
Opponent:		54,99% (G:16,15% B:0,69%)
45,01% (G:12,41% B:0,57%)		Conf.: ±0,0159 (+0,1915...+0,2233) - [0,0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 13 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

Up to the fourth decimal, results for each candidate are identical, but for the best move 8/7(3) 6/5 (discarded for some reason in Nack's compilation), a difference of 0.015. Why ?

By the way, is really 8/7(3) 6/5 the best move ?

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