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PotD 11/2/24 - We rolled our best - Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Monday, 25 November 2024, at 3:10 p.m.

In Response To: PotD 11/2/24 - We rolled our best (Stick)

I only included the plays that were mentioned in the responses. XG thinks we should sit on our hands and see what develops. John's play of going balls to the wall for the backgame (and is the dmp play!) is interesting. XGR++ thought it was a blunder but even a regular rollout brought it down to a reasonable error. It would take a much higher level rollout to compare the plays and even then, how much do we trust XG? I do a fair bit in general, even in backgames, assuming XG on its highest levels/move filter. Still, to be more confident I'd watch XG play it out and make sure it wasn't making any boneheaded plays. Something I'll perhaps add to the queue and post later if I devote the cpu time to it.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 117
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 178
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---B-BB-aCb-----BbbcbcBAA-:1:1:1:11:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 11

1.Rollout124/23 16/15(2) 5/4eq: -0.346
Player:
Opponent:		35.61% (G:4.73% B:0.18%)
64.39% (G:23.82% B:1.17%)		Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.353...-0.339) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 16 seconds
2.Rollout124/23 9/8* 5/4 3/2eq: -0.386 (-0.040)
Player:
Opponent:		40.08% (G:4.05% B:0.17%)
59.92% (G:36.92% B:4.13%)		Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.401...-0.372) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 19 seconds
3.Rollout224/22 23/22 9/8* eq: -0.546 (-0.200)
Player:
Opponent:		27.83% (G:5.00% B:0.22%)
72.17% (G:25.59% B:0.89%)		Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.555...-0.536) - [0.0%]
Duration: 49.3 seconds
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

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