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PotD 11/4/24 Take 2 - Referency - Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Tuesday, 26 November 2024, at 2:36 p.m.

In Response To: PotD 11/4/24 Take 2 - Referency (Stick)

Didn't notice I left in the notes from the file (oopsie!) when I posted so if you got this one wrong you may want to rethink life. The rollout for the reference position mentioned is posted below after the original problem.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 159
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 158
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aB-B--CaA---dD-a-c-e----C-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 61.49% (G:34.44% B:1.16%) 62.15% (G:36.07% B:1.16%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 38.51% (G:9.49% B:0.54%) 37.85% (G:9.75% B:0.56%)
Cubeless Equities +0.486 +1.024
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.650 (-0.068)±0.015 (+0.635..+0.665)
Double/Take:+0.718±0.024 (+0.694..+0.743)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.282)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 minute 03 seconds

63S-55A-F-C Reference Position
White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 159
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 147
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-b----E-C-A-eD---aAc--b-bA:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 65.97% (G:38.22% B:1.30%) 66.55% (G:40.00% B:1.34%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.03% (G:7.46% B:0.37%) 33.45% (G:7.71% B:0.41%)
Cubeless Equities +0.636 +1.326
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.783 (-0.217)±0.009 (+0.774..+0.793)
Double/Take:+1.061 (+0.061)±0.019 (+1.043..+1.080)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 49.5 seconds

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