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PotD 11/7/24 - Cube, too soon? Too late? - Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Saturday, 30 November 2024, at 6:46 p.m.

In Response To: PotD 11/7/24 - Cube, too soon? Too late? (Stick)

I was playing your typical speed session against XG and was a little surprised when XG dinged me for the autotake. If we take a hot second to look at the position it gets a lot worse but in the moment OtB it sure felt like I had to take given the opponent has no new points yet and we do.





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 152
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 135
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=--AB--DbA---aEa--cce---AA-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 70.40% (G:24.12% B:1.10%) 70.49% (G:26.75% B:1.36%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 29.60% (G:6.36% B:0.24%) 29.51% (G:6.75% B:0.30%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.594 +1.241
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.855 (-0.145)±0.009 (+0.846..+0.864)
Double/Take:+1.024 (+0.024)±0.012 (+1.012..+1.036)
Double/Pass:+1.000
 
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 minute 45 seconds

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