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PotD 11/12/24 - Prime Time - Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Saturday, 7 December 2024, at 5:48 p.m.

In Response To: PotD 11/12/24 - Prime Time (Stick)

I modified a position that came up OtB to make it a more reference type position in case anyone has the mental freedom to remember such things. The original position is shown below making the decision to cube easier.





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 117
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 100
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=---bBCC-CC-a-------bbbbbbA:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 63.05% (G:21.48% B:0.04%) 63.59% (G:20.95% B:0.03%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 36.95% (G:5.86% B:0.19%) 36.41% (G:5.68% B:0.16%)
Cubeless Equities +0.416 +0.846
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.527±0.003 (+0.524..+0.530)
Redouble/Take:+0.512 (-0.015)±0.007 (+0.505..+0.519)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.473)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 3.0%
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 minute 10 seconds

Original
White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 114
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 100
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=---bDBB-CC-a-------bbbbbbA:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 64.60% (G:21.66% B:0.03%) 64.91% (G:21.24% B:0.03%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.40% (G:5.23% B:0.16%) 35.09% (G:5.06% B:0.15%)
Cubeless Equities +0.455 +0.918
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.564 (-0.041)±0.006 (+0.558..+0.570)
Redouble/Take:+0.605±0.015 (+0.591..+0.620)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.395)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 18.3 seconds

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