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PotD 11/15/24 - Enough to RD?

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Sunday, 8 December 2024, at 10:48 a.m.

In Response To: PotD 11/15/24 - Enough to RD? (Stick)

If we double: This case seems easy. 23 times we hit. I will say 21 wins here. If we miss we get doubled out. So 21 wins and 15 losses on a 4 cube.

OR

If we don't double: 23 times we hit. With cube access I think we always have a cash next roll (which means probably too good by a small amount if he dances but would be very small). I will call it 23 wins.

13 times we miss. We get an immediate shot after opponents 66, 55, 21 but otherwise are in big trouble. Overall our win chances might be negated by opponent's gammons. I will give about 4% win chance from the immediate shot variations but otherwise will say residual win chance is balanced by opponent's gammon wins. So another 4% x 13 = about half a win.

21 wins on higher cube level is slightly better than 23.5 wins on current cube level so redouble.

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