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PotD 11/21/24 - Rollout - a pip again!

Posted By: Stick
Date: Wednesday, 18 December 2024, at 6:49 p.m.

In Response To: PotD 11/21/24 (Stick)

I'm always intrigued by positions where we can make a perhaps seemingly innocuous change yet it has a clear cut effective and is therefore quite insightful.

A lot of you, if not all of you, already knew this from your own study or maybe even the multitude of times it has been posted here. In case it slipped through the cracks on anyone though this is another gem of an example where moving your back checker from the 24pt to the 23pt has an enormous effect because of coverage + attackability. Who would have guessed it takes the position from DP to ND/T though!?





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 132
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 110
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=--ABBBC---A--Ab--cdf-B-A--:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 75.41% (G:8.83% B:0.20%) 76.18% (G:8.50% B:0.16%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 24.59% (G:2.74% B:0.07%) 23.82% (G:2.63% B:0.06%)
Cubeless Equities +0.570 +1.167
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.913 (-0.087)±0.005 (+0.908..+0.918)
Double/Take:+1.033 (+0.033)±0.009 (+1.024..+1.042)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 minute 16 seconds

Variant
White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 133
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 110
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=--ABBBC---A--Ab--cdf-B--A-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 71.35% (G:8.64% B:0.25%) 71.62% (G:8.29% B:0.22%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 28.65% (G:4.95% B:0.11%) 28.38% (G:5.08% B:0.12%)
Cubeless Equities +0.465 +0.931
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.799±0.010 (+0.788..+0.809)
Double/Take:+0.759 (-0.039)±0.014 (+0.745..+0.773)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.201)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 14.1%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 35.3 seconds

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