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PotD 11/24/24 - WBD - Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Thursday, 2 January 2025, at 10:33 p.m.

In Response To: PotD 11/24/24 - WBD (Stick)

This one was a bit tricky because normally we take assuming we have a normal solid forward position and the opponent is 9 pips or greater away from coming home safely. (see the two examples at the bottom of this post) Here however he's 10 pips from safety but 8s hit and twelves don't get by. As the player being doubled we also have a lot more crossovers/pips than normal to get off the gammon when we don't hit. All of that combined makes it a pass but per usual, a much deeper dive would be needed to understand all the nuances that could arise OtB.





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 150
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 60
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=----BBCBB-a-------A-ddCcc-:3:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 65.06% (G:39.31% B:0.29%) 65.34% (G:39.45% B:0.37%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.94% (G:4.47% B:0.14%) 34.66% (G:3.95% B:0.10%)
Cubeless Equities +0.651 +1.329
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.737 (-0.263)±0.008 (+0.729..+0.745)
Redouble/Take:+1.023 (+0.023)±0.013 (+1.010..+1.036)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 49.0 seconds

Variant #1
White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 116
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 59
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=----BCCCB-a--------Bccccb-:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 76.06% (G:4.26% B:0.01%) 76.80% (G:4.02% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 23.94% (G:1.15% B:0.03%) 23.20% (G:1.05% B:0.01%)
Cubeless Equities +0.552 +1.131
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.672 (-0.294)±0.004 (+0.668..+0.675)
Redouble/Take:+0.966±0.006 (+0.960..+0.971)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.034)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 12.4 seconds

Variant #2
White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 110
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 58
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=---BBBCBB--a-------Bccccb-:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 77.60% (G:2.33% B:0.00%) 78.08% (G:2.32% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 22.40% (G:1.10% B:0.02%) 21.92% (G:1.34% B:0.03%)
Cubeless Equities +0.564 +1.143
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.669 (-0.331)±0.001 (+0.668..+0.671)
Redouble/Take:+1.097 (+0.097)±0.004 (+1.093..+1.101)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 18.1 seconds

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