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Variation with Few Outfield Spares

Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Monday, 6 January 2025, at 2:49 p.m.

In Response To: PotD 11/25/24 (Stick)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 106
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 85
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--BBBBDA-b--bB---a-bbbbb--:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 77.28% (G:0.84% B:0.01%) 77.45% (G:0.89% B:0.01%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 22.72% (G:0.74% B:0.02%) 22.55% (G:0.78% B:0.03%)
Cubeless Equities +0.546 +1.100
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.853 (-0.133)±0.009 (+0.844..+0.862)
Double/Take:+0.986±0.009 (+0.978..+0.995)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.014)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:99.9%
Duration: 1 minute 19 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

In this position, where the leader has only one playable outfield spare, the trailer can take down 21 pips.

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