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BGonline.org Forums
cube magnifies luck
Posted By: MK In Response To: Cancelgammon (ah_clem)
Date: Saturday, 11 January 2025, at 9:39 a.m.
ah_clem said: a) ..... it seems prudent to wait until you opponent rolls something very lucky .....
Obviously, this is another sketchy variant with the purpose of reducing the element of luck in gamblegammon, while one of the best ways of achieving that to a certain degree, without a set of complicated rules, would be to simply eliminate the use of doubling cube.
I had started suggesting that the cube magnifies luck more than skill barely two years after I was exposed to Jellyfish, FIBS and cubeful gamblegammon, (after having played 20+ years of backgammon).
If you search the SCT archives with keywords "mk magnifies luck", you will find 18 threads with the first one that I had started on the subject. You don't need to read them all. This is just to show you that it had been a long going subject of discussion.
https://groups.google.com/g/rec.games.backgammon/search?q=mk%20magnifies%20luck
I had first used the words "The cube magnifies the luck factor" in 1998, in this post:
https://groups.google.com/g/rec.games.backgammon/c/42gg-RUTobI/m/czpeTxGD33gJ
In response, Michael Zehr had offered his "theory for why the cube will magnify skill instead of luck" in this post:
https://groups.google.com/g/rec.games.backgammon/c/2fCYjYSo9Ts/m/u0UjSR3EPusJ
Even as I kept arguing for it for decades, I didn't have any ways to demonstrate it other than my own playing against bots, which were honest but easily dismissable subjective experiments.
But recently, oh well how time flies eh? :(, about six months ago or so, I had finished my last set of experiments that demonstrated that the cube did indeed magnify luck. But I kinda lost interest in trying to prove to a god-fearing church flock that god doesn't exist and didn't update my web site nor post about it in BG forums. But this cancelgammon thread sparked my interest to write about it again.
The beautiful thing about this is that you don't even need to trust my experiments, run complicated scripts, etc. to prove it to yourselves. All you need to do is make a bot play against itself as two different checker skilled opponents; first cubless, then cubeful; and compare the results.
Set one player to, let's say, one ply and the other to three ply. Let them play, let's say, 10,000 cubeless money/point games and write down the ratio of points won by each side.
Then turn on the cube and set the same cube skill level, let's say two ply, for both players; let them play 10,000 cubeful money/point games and write down the ratio of points won by each side.
Now compare the results. You will see very clearly that the weaker checker player wins much more with the injection of the cube. This is undeniable evidence that cube magnifies luck more than it magnifies (if any at all) skill.
If you have the time and need to convince yourselves even more, run several combinations of checker and cube skills. The difference is more visible with "mutant bot vs bot" experiments if you can do those but if not, even though the skill differences between the lowest and highest bot settings is small, you will see it given that you run long enough sessions.
I have done my experiments using GnuBG but I assume you can do the same experiments using XG.
So there you have it. Maybe I'm too soft-hearted to feel pity for you guys but I suspect that deep down inside, you all silently pity yourselves also...
MK
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