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PotD 12/1/24 - Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Sunday, 12 January 2025, at 9:58 a.m.

In Response To: PotD 12/1/24 (Stick)

And so goes the quirkiness of backgammon. Both respondents got the correct bottom line answer yet they were both off a fair bit in their analysis.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 61
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 119
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---BBBCBa---AA-----Bccccb-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 69.65% (G:3.00% B:0.05%) 71.72% (G:3.26% B:0.08%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 30.35% (G:6.69% B:0.06%) 28.28% (G:6.80% B:0.06%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.356 +0.798
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.559 (-0.096)±0.003 (+0.556..+0.563)
Redouble/Take:+0.656±0.010 (+0.645..+0.666)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.344)
 
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 17.6 seconds

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