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Cancelgammon

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Wednesday, 15 January 2025, at 1:22 a.m.

In Response To: Cancelgammon (Bob Koca)

For the 42P 66 question my guess is to use the cancel. Just a guess, no significant analysis.

For the 100 - 100 race suppose that one uses a policy of cancelling 44, 55, or 66. If one of those rolls does happen it costs opponent an average of about 12 pips. The race would last about 12 rolls and a 1/12 chance each time gives about 65% chance of occuring. With that policy it would be about 65% * 12 = 7.8 pips. That strategy is suboptimal; as the game gets closer to ending would expand what would force a reroll with. My guess is about 8.5 pips. It also decreases variability, in games where the 44, 55, 66 does not happen the trailer was rolling worse than average and it takes away upside of luck which the trailer needs.

Overall my guess is about 100 - 109 pip race which is about 69% win chance.

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