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Recube action ATS?

Posted By: Max Stockslager
Date: Thursday, 30 January 2025, at 6:15 p.m.

In Response To: Recube action ATS? (John O'Hagan)

Using EPC estimates of 46.5-57.2 (from MCG method — 6.2 pips of wastage feels too low for White so maybe I made an error but I’ll go with it), the money point of last take is about 46.5 + (46.5/7 - 3) + 1 (since it’s almost pips-vs-pips) = 51.1 pips, so White is about 6 effective pips past the money PLT. I haven’t practiced the Kleinman formula, but I seem to remember from one of Art Benjamin’s articles that in medium-length races when the trailer is 6-10 pips past the money PLT their cubeless game winning chances are about 17-e (where e is trailer pip count - PLT) which would give White about 11%, which would be more than enough to take at the score. I guess it’s probably a double since we’re within about 2% of the takepoint but can’t imagine it’s huge at this score.

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