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Cube influence analysis and next move

Posted By: pierrez
Date: Monday, 10 February 2025, at 4:04 p.m.

In Response To: Cube influence analysis and next move (pierrez)

After the correct move by Blue, Bar/24 3/1*, the correct action cube is Double / Take when after the blunder move by Blue, Bar/24 7/5, the correct action cube is No Double / Take.


 




 

White is Joueur 2

score: 0
pip: 98
Unlimited Game
pip: 93
score: 0

Blue is Joueur 1
XGID=aABABBBAB--A-----bbccAbb--:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:0:10
White on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 54,15% (G:32,38% B:4,03%) 54,23% (G:32,37% B:3,92%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 45,85% (G:6,75% B:0,15%) 45,77% (G:6,83% B:0,15%)
Cubeless Equities +0,378 +0,755
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0,232 (-0,045)
Double/Take:+0,277
Double/Pass:+1,000 (+0,723)
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
White is Joueur 2

score: 0
pip: 97
Unlimited Game
pip: 93
score: 0

Blue is Joueur 1
XGID=-aBBBCB-B--A-----bbccAbb--:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:0:10
White on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 61,08% (G:12,11% B:0,25%) 61,34% (G:12,24% B:0,24%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 38,92% (G:9,77% B:0,38%) 38,66% (G:9,77% B:0,38%)
Cubeless Equities +0,244 +0,500
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0,408
Double/Take:+0,286 (-0,122)
Double/Pass:+1,000 (+0,592)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 17,1%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

In the first case, it is a Double because so many gammons (32%) for White provided that she enters immediately 56% give her enough equity to compensate the fans. And conversely for justifying the Take for Blue.

In the second case, more total wins, more simple wins but less gammons should deter White for doubling.

So the tricky question now : how to make an ally of these results ? What is the easiest ?

To prevent a double from White (not a big error) by putting her on the bar or to induce a wrong double ? Not sure.

And as Blue after the correct move, will all the players would take a double from White ? That would mean, playing a blunder in order to avoid a double we would refuse (a blunder), the opponent may blunder on her turn by overestimating her assets.

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