OK, I lied, I did get all three of these wrong.
The Petko match was first. For this first 55 position I was not shocked that my play of disengaging was wrong, but I was very surprised by the magnitude:
         
 
        
 | | White is Petko Kostadinov
score: 0
pip: 101 | | 9 point match | pip: 118
score: 0
Blue is Max Stockslager |
|
| XGID=----bCCCD---b---B--c-a-dc-:0:0:1:55:0:0:0:9:10 |
| Blue to play 55 |
1. | Rollout1 | 8/3(2) 7/2 6/1 | eq: +0.871 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 72.44% (G:10.29% B:0.36%)
27.56% (G:1.65% B:0.02%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.863...+0.879) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 21 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 8/3(2) 7/2(2) | eq: +0.845 (-0.025) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 72.08% (G:10.70% B:0.28%)
27.92% (G:1.45% B:0.01%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.838...+0.852) - [0.0%]
Duration: 55.1 seconds |
|
3. | Rollout1 | 16/6(2) | eq: +0.568 (-0.303) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 66.55% (G:2.57% B:0.05%)
33.45% (G:0.28% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.560...+0.577) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 31 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
In the second 55 position I also chose to break contact. Much closer, but still a blunder:
   
    
| | White is Petko Kostadinov
score: 3
pip: 117 | | 9 point match | pip: 138
score: 3
Blue is Max Stockslager |
|
| XGID=-A--aCBBBa--bB---bCbbc-b--:0:0:1:55:3:3:0:9:10 |
| Blue to play 55 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/3(2) | eq: +0.012 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 49.50% (G:9.50% B:0.20%)
50.50% (G:7.23% B:0.23%) | Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.002...+0.022) - [100.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 32 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 18/13(2) 18/8 | eq: -0.054 (-0.066) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 47.63% (G:2.41% B:0.04%)
52.37% (G:2.58% B:0.04%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.061...-0.046) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 51 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
The Dennis match was the following day. I had already transcribed the match above and was pretty rattled from the two errors above and saw an opportunity to learn from my mistakes and played 13/5(2). But in this case the natural 21/13(2) was right.
 
| | White is Dennis Culpepper
score: 1
pip: 126 | | 9 point match | pip: 130
score: 0
Blue is Max Stockslager |
|
| XGID=-B--B-C-C-A-eBb----e-Bc---:0:0:1:44:0:1:0:9:10 |
| Blue to play 44 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 21/13(2) | eq: +0.381 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 62.79% (G:0.03% B:0.00%)
37.21% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.018 (+0.364...+0.399) - [100.0%]
Duration: 35.7 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 13/5(2) | eq: +0.259 (-0.122) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 58.70% (G:7.59% B:0.11%)
41.30% (G:2.30% B:0.08%) | Conf.: ± 0.028 (+0.232...+0.287) - [0.0%]
Duration: 24.0 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout2 | 21/5 | eq: +0.187 (-0.194) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 56.81% (G:10.85% B:0.17%)
43.19% (G:4.25% B:0.22%) | Conf.: ± 0.038 (+0.149...+0.225) - [0.0%]
Duration: 32.9 seconds |
|
| |
1 157 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 156 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2