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Position of the Day 02-17-25 - Recube, too soon? Too late? Just right? - Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Wednesday, 19 February 2025, at 6:50 a.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 02-17-25 - Recube, too soon? Too late? Just right? (Stick)

This was during high stakes money play and OtB my plan was to wait until I had a direct cover and redouble knowing that regardless if it was technically right or wrong, it had a high probability of being passed. That's what transpired OtB, I cubed and they dropped. First is a regular 3ply/XGR rollout then a XGR+/XGR+ underneath that just for funsies. (I thought it might/should be closer than what the standard rollout had output)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 55
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 111
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aBBBBBAA-------------eBeA-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 74.68% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 75.47% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.32% (G:10.77% B:0.73%) 24.53% (G:10.40% B:0.72%)
Cubeless Equities +0.379 +0.797
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.681±0.002 (+0.679..+0.683)
Redouble/Take:+0.662 (-0.019)±0.003 (+0.659..+0.665)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.319)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 5.3%
Rollout details
41472 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 3 minutes 13 seconds

XGR+/XGR+
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 55
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 111
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aBBBBBAA-------------eBeA-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 75.71% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 75.91% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 24.29% (G:10.90% B:0.75%) 24.09% (G:10.66% B:0.74%)
Cubeless Equities +0.398 +0.809
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.691±0.008 (+0.684..+0.699)
Redouble/Take:+0.680 (-0.011)±0.015 (+0.665..+0.696)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.309)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 3.4%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: XG Roller+
Double Decision confidence:90.2%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 8 minutes 12 seconds

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