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Position of the Day 02-18-25 - Instructive Cube for Intermediate Players - Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Thursday, 20 February 2025, at 7:45 p.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 02-18-25 - Instructive Cube for Intermediate Players (Stick)

And probably for some Open level players too. Thing is, against someone who plays over a double digit PR, I cube this and expect to get passed. Against the best players I don't even know if I double. Of course a lot of minor details swing small bits of equity this way or that way and I could post at least a handful of variants without breaking a sweat showing this but you already know.

If you were in any way doubting the take you should play it out so you can get a better understanding of how hard it really is to bear in/off against a phantom backgame.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 119
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 80
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BBb-BCBD-a------b-cbbba--:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 71.16% (G:3.88% B:0.05%) 71.23% (G:3.87% B:0.04%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 28.84% (G:2.46% B:0.07%) 28.77% (G:2.62% B:0.08%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.437 +0.873
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.751±0.002 (+0.748..+0.753)
Double/Take:+0.742 (-0.008)±0.003 (+0.740..+0.745)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.249)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 3.1%
Rollout details
15552 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 5 minutes 46 seconds

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